Your “prison” might be God’s “safe house”

A few weeks ago at Fellowship Friday, Mark Goldstein shared an observation that really helped me reconcile myself to my past.

Mark told us he found a spider in his shower, and rather than let the spider get drowned when the shower was turned on, he captured it in a box to release it outside. But the spider, not knowing about the imminent deluge, ran from the box, resisting confinement.

Photo by Victor Iglesias

How often do we resist being put in a box? Mark’s point is that while the spider saw a danger, it actually got protection from a greater threat it had no way of perceiving. In the same way, God may put us in circumstances we resist or rebel against, but in fact he’s trying to preserve us from some greater difficulty beyond our understanding.

The last few years of my journalism career were like that. I felt stifled. My best skills were not being used every day. I felt, as I said to some prayer partners at the time, imprisoned.

God had me in a box. As I look back now, I realize that had I gone through the depth of the recession as a freelancer, I might not have made it. Instead of a prison, the newsroom was a safe house where I was able to earn a living, build relationships, and hone my editing skills.

Consider whether times you felt imprisoned were really times that God was protecting you from some greater disaster. The apostle Paul tells us that in all things God works for good together with those who love him. But God’s idea of what’s good and ours don’t always match. He’s not working to please us. He’s working to save us.

12 trends to watch in the coming year

Photo by Frank Hermers • sxc.hu

The website trendwatching.com released its free year-end Trend Briefing. The company’s head of research and analysis, Henry Mason, said, “Even with the backdrop of nations defaulting, we see more opportunities than ever for creative brands and entrepreneurs to deliver on changing consumer needs.”

Here’s a summary of the 12 trends. You can find the full report at trendwatching’s website.

1. Red Carpet
Many firms, including Hilton, Starwood and Harrods are providing tailored services for Chinese visitors. Travel from China is up 20 percent from 2010, and The World Tourism Organization estimates the total number of outbound tourists from China will reach 100 million by 2020.

2. DIY Health
Consumers are taking advantage of technology to track and manage their personal health. Apple’s App Store already offers 9,000 health apps.

3. Dealer-Chic
Deals are now about more than saving money: it’s the pursuit, the status, and the perceived smartness. Consumers are looking for more personalization and more loyalty schemes, and are putting more pressure on brands to deliver brilliance.

4. Eco-Cycology
Companies are increasingly taking back their products for recycling, and do so responsibly and innovatively. Nike, for example, recycles rubber from its shoes into artificial track surfaces.

5. Cash-Less
Coins and notes won’t disappear completely, but cashless payment systems have gone mainstream, with MasterCard and Google working on a system of payments, rewards and offers around mobile technologies.

6. Bottom of the Urban Pyramid
The majority of consumerism is urban, yet in much of the world city life is chaotic, cramped and none too pleasant. Low-income urbanites look for innovation tailored to their unique circumstances, from health issues to lack of space to the need for durability. Opportunities for brands catering to such needs are unprecedented.

7. Idle Sourcing
Making it simple for consumers to contribute will be more popular than ever in 2012. Smarter mobile device sensors will let consumers broadcast information about where and what they are doing, to help improve products and services. For example, Boston now has an app that uses smartphones’ accelerometers and GPS to detect potholes.

8. Flawsome
Consumers think brands that behave more humanly, including exposing their flaws, are awesome. Brands that are honest about their flaws, that show some empathy, generosity, and humor will win over consumers. Domino’s, for example, mounted a news scroll in Times Square showing both compliments and complaints from its customers.

9. Screen Culture
The proliferation of touchscreen devices is bringing about a culture that is not only more pervasive, but more personal and immersive than ever. Companies taking advantage of this trend range from those who make screen-friendly winter gloves to a restaurant chain that installed teleconferencing capabilities.

10. Recommerce
It’s never been easier for savvy consumers to resell or trade in past purchases, unlocking the value in their current possessions. Car dealers aren’t the only ones who can take an old product and offer credit toward a new one.

12. Point & Know
Consumers are used to being able to find out just about anything that’s online or text-based, but 2012 will see instant visual information gratification brought into the real and visual world with objects and even people. Some of these technologies, like face recognition software, are already in the market.

11. Emerging Maturialism
Yes, we’re out of order here, because this one … at the risk of editorializing, it’s hard to address to Christian businesspeople. The folks at trendwatching tell us that, “While cultural differences continue to shape consumer desires, middle-class and/or younger consumers in almost every market embrace brands that push boundaries.” If you read the trendwatching report, you’ll find some of those boundaries might have been better left alone. This idea will be harder for Christian businesses to adopt. But we’d love to hear your ideas about it.

View all 12 full trend descriptions, including examples of brands from around the world already implementing them, at www.trendwatching.com/briefing.

When to pay bonuses despite posting a loss

One of the many great things in Kris DenBesten's book SHINE is the account of how he surprised his employees one year by giving bonuses even though the company had posted a loss.

I thought of that this week because of two very different news stories. First, my colleague Adam O'Daniel at the Charlotte Business Journal reported that Bank of America's board awarded its CEO, Brian Moynihan, a $9 million stock bonus, even though the bank posted a $3.2 billion loss for 2010.


Then, Bloomberg reported that Lockheed Martin's CEO, Robert J. Stevens, asked the board to keep his pay where it's been for three years. The company won't award raises to any executives at the level of vice president and above, because although it did have a profit last year, the profit margin was too narrow.

Lockheed Martin's bonus policy "accounts for individual performance and the performance of the company, or business unit."

Lockheed Martin's policy makes sense. I, too, work for a company where bonuses are not issued unless financial goals are met. And BofA? What a crock. How do you award a bonus when there's a loss? If there's no profit, there can be no bonuses.

Then I remembered SHINE.

Mind you, there's a big difference between DenBesten's company and Bank of America, and it doesn't only have to do with how many digits follow the dollar sign.

BofA paid its executive bonuses because, as we have seen so often lately, that's just what banks customarily do. In the world of high finance, you don't withhold an executive's raise or bonus. It's part of that culture. Defense contractors and newspapers have a different culture.

And so, I think, do equipment companies.

When DenBesten handed out those bonuses, he was acting on his own principle of serving others. It's exactly the kind of radical step of faith we're called to take, especially when times are tough.

Hiking up recovery mountain

If your business, like so many others, is still hurting, you may wonder what the economists are thinking when they talk about our economy being in recovery.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession ran from December 2007 to June 2009. If we've been in recovery for a year and a half, why does it still feel like a "recession" to so many?

It's important to understand what economists mean when they speak of "recession." If you graph them, periods of growth, or expansion, are rising lines leading to peaks. Periods of contraction, or recession, are descending lines that lead to troughs.

The GDP, one of the main factors in measuring economic growth, has been rising since June 2009. Though that growth was sometimes small, the numbers were positive, as opposed to the negative numbers seen during the recession.

So why does recovery seem so crummy?

Photo by Christophe Libert
stock.xchng

Imagine you're climbing a mountain. When you reach the peak, you stand in the bright sunshine and can  see for miles.

Then you fall. You roll down that steep slope for a year and a half. You land in a valley. Bruised, but not broken, you stand up. That mountain behind you now blocks the sun. You're in shadow.

You can't go back the way you came. Ahead of you is another mountain -- maybe not as tall as the one you fell from. It has a shallower slope. You begin climbing. Slowly, surely, you ascend. You leave the valley floor behind. But the next peak is still far away, and you are still in shadow.

In The Great Reset, Richard Florida compares the 2007-2009 recession to earlier ones. "Recovery from both the Long Depression of the 1870s and the Great Depression of the 1930s -- the First and Second Resets -- took the better part of two or three decades."

He says forecasting where we'll be once the present crisis is history would be like predicting "the full flower of postwar suburbanization from the vantage point of Franklin Roosevelt's inauguration day in 1932."

Florida goes on to identify the forces "that will almost certainly power a real Great Reset and a more sustainable new way of life." I have yet to finish this book, but I suspect Florida's observations will be instructive for all of us as we climb through this long recovery.

And as we go, let's remember that we have a mighty counselor who climbs with us out of the valley. "The people walking in darkness have seen a great light; on those living in the land of the shadow of death a light has dawned." — Isaiah 9:2

Pulling through

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke added his voice to those who say we are not facing a “double-dip” recession. Gross Domestic Product is increasing, albeit slowly. Bernanke said, though, that the recovery “won't feel terrific."

Among those in agreement is investment advisor Barry Ritzholz, who said on his blog Monday wrote, “Following the initial surge in data off of the lows, we have entered a slowing phase of the recovery.”

Ritzholz discredits those who forecast a “double-dip” recession by pointing out that although some economic indicators are slowing, “none of it is consistent with past double dip recessions.”

But we are in, as he puts it, “a soft patch.” And Bernanke warns us that the recovery is not “going to be fast enough to put back eight million people who lost their jobs within a few years.”

Of course, we know that small business is a great driver of employment. According to the Small Business Administration, businesses with fewer than 500 employees account for more than half of American workers. Also, “While small firms create a majority of the net new jobs, their share of employment remains steady since some firms grow into large firms as they create new jobs.”

Your chamber is here to help you through this soft patch. Through the events and courses we offer, our goal is to help you build the relationships you need to succeed. That’s why Monica Wofford will be talking to us Thursday about leadership. That’s why we’ve lined up teachers to help you build your business and claim your place in the Seven Mountains of Culture. And that’s why, on any given Friday, you can meet with your peers to brainstorm answers to the challenges you face in your business.

As Christian businesspeople, we don’t face these tough times alone. We are part of a family of faith that serves a mighty God. So when the stock market wavers and nonfarm payrolls are down and the European debt situation starts looking pretty bleak, take heart. He has overcome the world.

Facing 2010 with confidence

Ann Sonntag, an award-winning journalist, is publisher of Orlando Business Journal. She has been named one of Orlando's Most Powerful People in 2005, 2006 and 2007, by Orlando Magazine.
 
Ann will be our featured speaker at the February Business-Building Lunch Feb. 2 with a talk titled "Economic Realities In 2010." Some indicators show we may be pulling out of the trough, but the road to recovery is likely to be long. Ann shared some of her thoughts with Randye McLemore in this interview:



Join us at First Baptist Orlando's Faith Hall Conference Center Feb. 2, 11:00 a.m.-1 p.m. The member price is $20, and the non-member price is $30. Pay online at our Web site, or call our office at 407-814-1124. You may also mail a check to: CF Christian Chamber, 1631 Rock Springs Rd. Ste. 239, Apopka FL 32712. Please include name and business for each person attending.

Thank you to our February lunch sponsor, Lykes Insurance.